Mock Draft Mock Draft

The 2013 NFL Draft begins in mere hours. You have been inundated with, and yet still yearn for, mock drafts, draft profiles, and prospect rankings. Your desire to discover the thinnest sliver of insight has led you here, to the 1st Annual Mock Draft Mock Draft, where mock draft mockers and mockees are unabashedly mocked with supreme bias. The brain child of three men with sources familiar to situations, the 1st Annual Mock Draft Mock Draft is an an attempt to spit in the face of the establishment, to buck the system, to break the monotony of the hundreds of mock drafts that provide no more and no less information to NFL fans than an NHL injury report.

This unique brand of mock draft mockery consists of twenty-one total selections, three picks per round for seven rounds. It’s the moment the mock drafters haven’t been waiting for and will never forget because it’s impossible to forget something you don’t know about. Each selection was thoughtfully and deliberately decided, and any mock drafter not selected was purposely not selected with unintentional intent.

So mock drafters beware. No reach is long enough, no stock too high or too low, no mouth loud enough, nor is any board big enough for the raw subjectivity illustrated below. Jordy, James, and Dave are not normal men. Normal men mock drafts. These men mock those men.

By virtue of a subjective order determined by Dan Klausner, who will also be providing post-draft analysis, Jordy has the first pick, followed by James and then Dave. Jordy is on the clock!

First Round

1st Overall – Jordy

Having the first pick in our “Draft Mockers Mock Draft” was a little nerve racking for me. I had the power to start off our mock draft as either light-hearted and funny or serious and informative. Needless to say, I became DRUNK with that power. I almost made the rest of the picks for Dave and James so theirs would follow suit. No I’m kidding, these guys are way more intelligent and witty than me, but without further ado my first pick in the “Draft Mockers Mock Draft” is MATT MILLEN!!! “WHOA, what a monkey wrench Jordan, he’s not even a mock drafter!” Yeah well he wasn’t a GM before the Lions made him one either! That’s the American dream right there.

This was really a no brainer for me. I need a guy who has made a TON of mistakes over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again so he can eventually (10 years or so) learn from them. Now obviously selecting Matt Millen first overall can only mean one thing, my team will be drafting a WR in the first round! And most likely miss! ALTHOUGH there is a small chance he could stumble upon the next Calvin Johnson for me. Who knows?! NO ONE DOES. That’s the Matt Millen Magic. (Or M^3 as he likes to be called) The best part about this pick is in 5 years only 3 of his picks will remain. It’ll be like he never even existed!

Dave: Holy shit. This is bigger than when the Asians took Wu Tang Clan in the Racial Draft. Matt Millen, this guy is the total package. Terrible talent evaluator, terrible roster management and he’s actually done it. Is it possible to have the steal of the draft with the #1 pick?

James: How the hell do I follow that?

I’ll trade you a 7th rounder for a 1st rounder. Deal?

Straight up. No extra picks, just a 2013 7th rounder for a 2019 1st. If you gave up the 1st, you’d be immediately fired after you made that trade, if you were even allowed to. But this trade could happen on Saturday at the draft. Sort of.

It’s easier when Josh McDaniels is calling the shots.

Sometimes a team is looking to trade up and doesn’t have or want to give up picks that year. The rule of thumb in that scenario is that you give up a pick in next year’s draft from the previous round. Want a 5th rounder this year? It’ll cost you a 4th next year. Because of that, a shrewd GM can put himself in position to get himself a 1st rounder well down the road for peanuts… assuming he’s still around. (Working for an owner like Jim Irsay or Bob Kraft would greatly help). It all starts with having a 7th rounder and a team that really wants a guy, so you get them to give up a 6th next year. Or you could shorten the process by a year by starting with a 6th rounder and get a 5th. From there you just let it snowball over the years. Pro Sports Transactions has a list of all the trades made over the years, an incredible resource. Let’s take a look only at trades where a team gave up a single pick in the current year draft in exchange for a higher round pick the next year to illustrate that this is possible. It’s not easy.

7th for a 6th is relatively common. In 2003 the Eagles a traded a 7th to the Packers for a 2004 6th, in 2006 the Titans traded a 7th to the Colts for a 2007 6th (which the Titans got from the Colts in an earlier trade, so Indy wound up with it’s original pick), in 2008 the Packers traded a 7th to the Saints for a 2009 6th, in 2009 the Eagles dealt a 7th to the Colts for a 2010 6th, in 2010 the Lions traded a 7th to the Eagles for a 2011 6th and in 2012 the Vikings traded a 7th to the Titans for a 2013 6th.

6th for a 5th is rare. 5th rounders that are traded are almost always part of a package when a team trades down/up. In 2008 the Eagles traded a 6th to the Browns for a 2009 5th. I know I said I was only looking at one for one trades, but this is too good to pass up. You can also skip a step if you get lucky and trade with Josh McDaniels. The Broncos gave up a 2011 5th rounder for two 2010 7ths. Two 7ths for a 1st ain’t so bad.

5th for a 4th is more common. In 2003 the Colts traded a 5th to the Texans for a 2004 4th, then in 2005 they dealt a 5th to the Eagles for a 2006 4th and in 2010 the Jaguars traded a 5th to the Saints for a 2011 4th, which the Jags got from the Raiders got from the Patriots got from the Broncos got from the Cowboys. Whew.

4th for a 3rd is also rare. In 2002 the Texas traded a 4th to the Falcons for a 2003 3rd, and in 2008 the Cowboys traded a 4th to the Browns for a 2009 3rd.

3rd for a 2nd has happened a few times as well, all by the Patriots. In 2003 the Patriots traded a 3rd to the Dolphins for a 2004 2nd, in 2009 they dealt a 3rd to the Titans for a 2010 2nd and in 2010 they traded a 3rd to the Panthers for a 2011 2nd. Interestingly, the Patriots wound up dealing all three of those 2nd rounders. When Peter King needs to go to his happy place, he thinks of those trades.

And finally, 2nd for a 1st, also rare. In 2009 the Seahawks traded a 2nd rounder to the Broncos for a 2010 1st. Josh McDaniels strikes again.

As I said, it’s not easy. If it was easy, everyone would do it. But it’s fun to think that with a little luck, it can happen.

The Real State of the Eagles

Football Outsiders has a feature where Andy Benoit goes over every roster position by position and grades each player and comments on the various units, calling it “The State of the Team.” It’s a good concept, but it’s horribly executed, because Benoit is a poor writer. He thinks among other things that Joe Flacco and Antonio Brown are elite players and that Nnamdi Asomugha and Steven Jackson are good players. Take a look for yourself, there are plenty of legitimate complains in the comments sections. The player rating system is poorly defined and inconsistent, and it’s labels of “star” and “good” and “adequate” pushes the conversation towards nitpicking that this player is good and that player is adequate. That these are all being done before the draft sets the table for discussion of what each team should do in the draft, but instead little mention is made about it. The Eagles one is particularly bad, listing Stanley Havili, who was traded weeks ago, and not listing Riley Cooper, who’s been on the team for years. Then there’s his comment on Evan Mathis, both petty and ignorant. But the biggest problem is that Benoit treats all teams equal. Every team is judged on how they stand for the 2013 season, which is a narrow way of thinking. The Falcons and Broncos are trying to win a Super Bowl this year, they should be judged against that. But the Raiders and Jets are building for the future and should be judged accordingly. But Benoit doesn’t care, or didn’t think to do it that way. He doesn’t account for age, contract or the options the team had in free agency. So how about an Eagles fan gives a real run down on the roster? With better and better defined ratings and a look towards the draft and the future? Let’s do it.

The Re-Recruiting Trail

In the mid 1990s, Mike Riley was the offensive coordinator and QB coach of USC. There was a QB that he tried to recruit, but the player signed elsewhere. A few years later, as head coach of the Chargers, Riley still liked the kid enough to want to draft him but GM Bobby Beathard overruled him. In the third act of his Greek tragedy, the player that escaped Riley twice would beat him in their only match up against each other, throwing his first TD in the NFL in that game.

It was Tom Brady.

Chip Kelly should have that story ready if Howie Roseman shoots him down on a draft recommendation. Taking a look at this year’s draft class, there are quite a few players that Kelly missed out on on Signing Day (insert Willie Lyles joke here, and make it good), and the Eagles might make sure that doesn’t happen again on draft day(s).

Kelly is still upset Kevin Hart chose Cal.

With the Combine this week, I went through every player from an FBS school that is invited to see who Oregon tried but failed to recruit.

Meet the (ex-)Browns

In which I spend way too many words on the Eagles coaching staff.

I think Chip Kelly was the best hire the Eagles could have made. Maybe he won’t turn out to be, maybe he will, time will tell. I’m not completely sold on him but there wasn’t anyone out there that was clearly better. There’s things to like and legitimate reasons to be doubtful, of course nothing’s guaranteed. That’s also a fair description of his staff.

“You don’t want the best?” “I didn’t say that. We want the best that we can get.”

Chip Kelly finally announced his staff on Monday. Finally the local media can stop complaining about it instead of ignoring their jobs and actually researching these coaches for what they bring to the team instead of just reading Wikipedia and proclaiming “everything you need to know” about the staff. Since we’re 7 months away from kickoff and there’s nothing else to talk about, I’ve taken a closer look at the staff. I started out thinking this is a weak collection of coaches, but the more I read the more I came around to it. For the most part I like the assistant coaches and I’ll give Kelly the benefit of the doubt on these, but the coordinators should be held to a high standard and they are weak hirings. On face value, the staff is a good mix of college coaches and NFL coaches, experience and youth. But you have to dig deeper than face value. Kelly can hire 100 guys who share his philosophy and talk a good game, but at the end of the day results matter. Kelly’s coordinators are thin on results in those roles, but nearly all of his assistants have a track record of success at something. Let’s start with the offense, since that is Kelly’s forte.

Finding A Coach Is Hard Work

The Eagles are having a very difficult time finding a new head coach. They’ve interviewed 47 candidates including Chip Kelly, Brian Billick, Mike Nolan, Brian Kelly, Jimmy Johnson, Barry Switzer, Mike McCoy, Matt McCoy, Bill O’Brien, Conan O’Brien and Soledad O’Brien. They also unsuccessfully tried to interview Nick Saban, Lou Saban and a DVD of Vince Lombardi.

They are missing two candidates who are clearly top notch.

Thanks But No Thanks

I’m not sure who I want to be the next Eagles coach. There’s some good candidates out there with track records. And then there are the coaches who have none, but because they’ve had one good year the media suddenly thinks they are head coach material, because the media is dumb.

Give it to this guy. At least clock management will improve.

These are the coaches I don’t want.

Retreads. I have and will always be against hiring a failed coach. Sure, there are some success stories: Bill Belichick, Tom Coughlin, Tony Dungy, Jon Gruden and Dick Vermeil all won Super Bowls at their second stop. But that’s it, only 5 guys have done it, possibly 6 if the Broncos, Seahawks or Redskins win the Super Bowl this year. It’s a really short list. And other than Belichick (and if he were to win, Pete Carroll) they all had significant success in their first stop. So if you’re going to hire a retread, make sure it’s a really really good one. Which narrows it down to two names, neither one of which is appealing or realistic. Bill Cowher‘s name is always thrown into the ring, but he was Andy Reid before Andy Reid and his ultra conservative ways would leave him behind today. And he really seems to enjoy retirement. Jon Gruden is an even worse fit, he never won a playoff game since winning the Super Bowl with Dungy’s team and he’s absolutely terrible at developing players. Horrific at it. The only offensive player that was drafted and developed under Gruden that has gone to a Pro Bowl is Davin Joseph. Gruden works great with veteran teams, he would be a good fit for the Cowboys, a terrible fit for the Eagles. Just say no to Gruden. Ultimately it’s irrelevant, Lurie is not hiring a retread.

For anyone: player, coach, GM, I need to see them do it two years in a row before I am sold. Anyone can have a good year, and anyone can have a bad year too. Two good years in a row is all I ask. These coaches don’t have it. None of them are impressive in the criteria listed above. They’ve generally had one good year and before that nothing noteworthy, or their past is being seriously over looked.